Superforecasting

Key Principles, Insights and Actionable Exercises

Predictions and forecasts are made about the weather, the markets, the future job and political outlook. They have entered into most areas of our lives, whether we’re mapping out our next career move or choosing where to invest, leading to our fixation on them and our irritation when things don’t go as predicted.

In their book ‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’, Tetlock and his colleague Dan Gardner found that forecasters could improve their accuracy by studying the data and a few other best practices.

They found that it’s possible for forecasts to upgrade their skills, realign with each new piece of information and then analyzed and improved upon. Superforecasting is a trainable skill that everyone can do with some evidence gathering, score keeping, and patience.



Author


Philip Tetlock
Philip Tetlock

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